Tag / US Economy

by Frank Maduri

Are We Headed for Another Recession?

On the heels of a negative May jobs report and some other economic data combined with warnings from financial industry experts the question kept turning in my head: are we heading for another recession?

This discourse included a stern warning from political talk show host, Mark Levin, at the end of last week regarding the impending economic downturn. I invite all those who are interested to check out that source material which made headlines throughout the mainstream media and internet news sites.

The Federal Reserve had a more muted commentary from their leader, Janet Yellen, last week where the overall state of the economy, the potential for a rate hike, and the status of the jobs market were all addressed. The criticism of Fed Chair Yellen is that she has been unclear about the future potential activity with regard to the state of the economy and rate increases.

The counterpoint being that the soft May jobs report had to have impacted the potential course for an interest rate change and some will argue that any major changes should be held off until there are at least one jobs report that shows a rebound in the labor force numbers.

Furthermore, there are others that would maintain that any rate change should be tabled until there are two solid months of jobs data to reinforce that uncertainty. Some economists have speculated that due to the weak May jobs report, the inflation trend data, and other factors including the recent terror incidents in the world that the Fed will not raise in rates in June; a decision that will be made on Wednesday.

That covers the short term immediate future, but looking further down the line, I remain undeterred from my initial doubts about the economy. The overall underemployment rate of people working multiple part time jobs at lower wages than they earned previously coupled with the growing data supporting the trend that so many Americans have simply given up looking for work is daunting.

All of these factors collide in a situation similar to the last tipping point where we had a major recession. In an election year that would be a major problem for our nation and shift the economy to an obvious priority status with the summer conventions for each major party just weeks away from taking place.

Conversely, the Fed will be under scrutiny to raise rates in the event that our economy does hit shallow water because they will have no other way to go if they need to drop the rate lower in future months. It is a very sticky situation. The decision will have far reaching implications for the Dow Jones and the other major indices in the near term as well.

The sheer volatility of the market recently has got to give the casual trader some cause for definite concern. The news last week of the lowest retail gasoline prices in the peak summer driving season in recent history also is an indictment on the glut of supply of crude oil globally and part of the readjustment in the supply/demand curve structure moving forward.

The overall picture for the global economy is certainly another aspect to consider and the general picture between the effects of the Zika virus in Brazil, the many issues in India, the contraction of overall productivity in China, and the volatility of the Russian economy marked by the fluctuations in energy markets all combines to make for a bleak outlook.

The impending vote of the United Kingdom with regard to their status within the European Union and whether they will exit that government body will have a dramatic impact on the economic outlook for that continent and for the entire world.

All of these contributing pieces lend credence to my initial assertion that I believe the U.S. is headed for another recession. In the interim it bears watching to see how the Fed will react and how the markets will, in turn, respond. The best way to weather a storm is to be prepared, and unfortunately, I think a storm is coming.

by Frank Maduri

Strong Bucks: The Strength of the US Dollar & The Impact on Small Businesses

The financial news outlets have run a variety of pieces on the growing strength of the U.S. dollar as compared to other foreign currency such as the Euro or the Japanese Yen, but this development is already exerting a negative impact on the small business community.

 

The stronger dollar means that the importation of American products is more expensive. This translates to “Made in the USA” products being less capable of competing with products made in China, Europe, and other emerging markets. The result has been a domino type of effect where the distributors of US made products located overseas are either placing smaller orders or seeking some type of price reduction to be able to move the inventory.

 

This scenario places the American small and medium sized business in an unenviable position of having to shave profit margin points in order to remain competitive in overseas markets. The reduction in profit margin often means that they have less money to reinvest into their business to either develop new products or new methods to produce goods as well as having less money to hire additional workers.

 

Weak Forecast

 

The news of the strengthening of the US dollar comes against the backdrop of a weak jobs report for the month of March. This forecast will look especially bleak when you consider that the majority of new jobs are created by small businesses, and they are dealing with a negative outlook on their respective profitability due to the stronger currency performance of the dollar.

I compare this situation to a negative feedback loop because it is all tied together and the consequences are serious for the small business community and the future of American manufacturing. I have read accounts of small business owners who remain committed to making their products in the USA, but they acknowledge that the currency outlook will force them to innovate and work with smaller head counts.

 

The labor outlook continues to be troubling not only for Wall Street but the Federal Reserve as well. The forecast for growth of better paying jobs as well as overall wage growth is an area of increased interest by the Fed in recent months. The majority of the American work force has not seen wages increase much, if at all, in recent years. The improvement in the economy was supposed to change that trend, but it has not.

 

The American economy went through several months of adding jobs in traditionally lower pay sectors such as retail and hospitality services. The real indication of an economy that is turning the corner is the addition of higher wage paying positions in a variety of other sectors, which would have a direct correlation to wage growth, but these metrics have been slow to develop.

 

Clogging the Engine

 

The American small business is the engine which gets the rest of the job market moving again, and I fear that the strengthening of the US dollar in the currency markets will have a negative effect on their profitability. This will directly impact their ability to hire more workers, which will have a widespread effect on the American labor participation rate.

 

The strong US dollar might be great for tourism because Americans can go and get significantly more value for their money in their European trips this spring and summer, but this will be offset by the ability of American small and medium sized businesses maintaining profitability. The economic realities of that change will have profound impact on the domestic economy through the rest of 2015.

 

(Some background information courtesy of CNBC.com and CBS Marketwatch.com)

by Frank Maduri

American Income Inequality Highest In 100 Years

The Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, spoke on Friday in Boston about the concerning growth in the gap between the rich and poor in the United States. Some methods of measurement for both income and wealth distribution have reported the inequalities in these two crucial economic factors to be near the highest levels in 100 years.

 

In her comments Ms. Yellen cited stagnant wage growth, slow job market recovery especially in higher paying positions, and the downturn in the real estate market as the main reasons for this increased level of wealth inequality. The wide disparity creates conditions that make it difficult for the poor to move up the income ladder, and the tepid rebound for real estate prices has wiped out family wealth customarily found in home values in the past.

 

Furthermore the head of the Federal Reserve commented on the contributing role of student loan debt to the widening gap in income disparity. In fact, according to various sources, student loan debt has quadrupled in the past ten years. This could lead to a scenario, as Ms. Yellen explained, that threatens the economic equality envisioned by our nation’s founders.

 

The argument could be made, according to Ms. Yellen and other experts that the substantial increase in the cost of a college degree will make that goal unattainable for many average earning and lower income earning American families seeking to provide their children with a better life.

 

Slippery Ladder

 

This growing trend of economic inequality cultivates conditions that hamper upward mobility and can lead to societal unrest on a widespread scale. This subject is of great personal interest to me and I have written about the wealth gap for several news outlets and websites in the past. It is one of the most troubling and frustrating aspects of American society, in my opinion, that some people own multiple houses and others have no place to sleep.

 

The flat wage curve and the stubborn job market are two of the main contributors to what I feel is hampering the income inequality issue the most in our country. Those two factors combine to create a scenario I liken to a slippery ladder where people cannot climb out of the situation they are in.

 

My research for another article led me to reports of Americans with Master’s degree level educations who are working for $13.00 an hour because the economy has not added nearly enough jobs that require that level of education. Those applicants with higher level degrees are now finding it hard to even get an interview for lower tier management level jobs because most companies feel they will lose the Master’s level person once the economy fully rebounds.

 

The lower wage earning and middle class wage earning demographics have their own set of challenges with rising costs on food, clothing, education, and healthcare. The lack of affordable housing in many areas of the country translates into roughly 70% of the family budget for lower wage earning jobs being spent on rent payments. This huge monthly expenditure for housing further debilitates any progress towards financial security for many average families.

 

Conversely, wealthy people tend to save more of their income and have reaped the benefits of most of the income increases in the past several years which has stunted overall spending.

 

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

 

The Fed chief neglected to mention in her speech that the role of certain monetary policies such as QE have contributed majorly to the same economic inequalities she was addressing. The weak overall economic growth domestically indicates that any further manipulation through monetary policy by the Fed could trigger inflationary responses throughout the system.

 

The use of QE and some other methods to generate quick liquidity throughout the domestic economy resulted in bond buying which directly impacted the stock market. The increased stock market activity directly benefited the upper class more than those in the other earnings demographics because the wealthy own more stock and greater amounts of stock than anyone else in the system.

 

However, in fair balance, I know of people in the upper class who have used their resources to help numerous charitable causes in a variety of societal areas where their funds were desperately needed. I tend to not make blanket generalizations because they are not accurate or fair. I know people with great generosity and others who could do more to aid those less fortunate.

 

The Fed chief spoke about the need for some level of inequity in the system so it creates an incentive for people to desire to work hard to improve their given situation. Though Ms. Yellen readily admits that the current system has gaps too wide for the average wage earner to bridge in the course of a lifetime.

 

Therefore the Fed involvement in the inherent economic disparity is the definition of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The central bank was so concerned about warding off any introduction of inflation into the system (which they figured would impact the average consumer more profoundly than the higher income consumer) that their policies directly contributed to the vast income inequality we now face.

 

Slow Growth

 

The slow job growth has been a source of Ms. Yellen’s concerns for a while and does not appear to be changing at any point in the near future. The report on Friday via Fox Business News is that the labor participation rate is at roughly 62% which is the lowest figure in over 50 years.

 

The long term unemployed and the underemployed have also been topics discussed by the Fed chief in recent speeches. Those numbers continue to remain stubbornly high in some states and the national underemployment rate (those working part-time but needing full-time work) stands at roughly 15%. The false stigma attached to those who can be defined as the long term unemployed have severely hampered the consumer driven economy because those people have far less income during their prime earning years to reinvest into the economy.

 

Ms. Yellen also spoke about the slow growth in the establishment of new small businesses and the role of the family business in the American economic landscape. However she did not venture to explain why that situation is occurring. Many reports and studies from credible sources attribute the slow pattern in the creation of new small businesses or start-ups to the high taxes levied by both the federal and state government which hampers their profitability. The other issue is the impact of the new Affordable Care Act or the provision of “Obama Care” for small business owners to carry an increased burden to provide health care stipends to their employees.

 

The antiquated American tax code system can be blamed for the high taxation rates levied on small businesses and start-ups which is decapitating the very ingenuity this country was founded upon. The tax policy towards the small business community as well as the healthcare provision requirements are two areas that merit reforms on both the federal and state levels.

 

The federal and state governments need to put all options on the table at this point to foster a more robust overall business environment to bring about the reforms needed to bolster the labor work force participation rate, which cannot stay at the abysmal level it currently is tracking at according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

 

It is clear that above and beyond QE or any of the other monetary policy mechanisms utilized by the Federal Reserve during the past several years, the rates of a variety of taxes coupled with the sheer size of the social welfare programs have had a more drastic impact on the income disparity between rich and poor than any other factors involved.

 

Set Up To Fail

 

If the continued volatility of the stock market and the labor participation rates as well as the underemployment rate and wage levels remain unchanged, the U.S. economy is being set up to fail. We will experience another major recessionary downturn if these other factors are not corrected and the business climate and job growth forecasts do not improve drastically in the short term.

 

Our economy is unsustainable if it continues along the path of the past 30 years with significant gains for the wealthy and stagnant living conditions for everyone else in our society. Ms. Yellen spoke about this topic and tied economic opportunity to the core foundations of our country.

 

I agree that it is against our core principles to keep so many people in despair while a select few continue to thrive. It should not be a luxury to attend college, that opportunity should not become an elitist situation and it is moving increasingly further in that direction.

 

In the same vein, as I wrote earlier, some Americans feel that they are being punished for having advanced degrees, and many are straddled with debt from an attempt they made at furthering their education. Now they are discouraging others from making the same “mistake” which I find is a dangerous precedent for our society from both an economic and intellectual point of view.

 

We should be encouraging and incentivizing those who have pursued advanced degrees in a chosen field, they should not be working at the local mall for $12.00 per hour. I have worked several different positions in the retail sector and it is hard work, but I think we can all agree that our culture is not well served if Master’s degree educated people are placed in those jobs. In fact, some experts would make the argument that it is a societal disservice all the way around; because the better educated person is taking a job away from a person who is qualified to work in the retail field that may have trouble finding other suitable work.

 

These are the types of scenarios that end up contributing to the downfall of a given society. It is about so much more than salary increases and 401(K) plans – it is about the opportunities given to those who have talents and skills to make necessary contributions to the improvement and progress of our society.

 

The root cause of all of this disparity is greed – from the top down on the part of everyone involved. It is all greed driven activity in its purest form.

 

Ms. Yellen spoke about our founders and the bedrock principles that America was based upon concerning economic mobility and equality of opportunity. The importance of those values within our society is unquestionably significant, the absence of those values in recent years is glaringly evident in the news regarding the income inequality gap.

 

Our founders believed in the presence and power of God in everything that they did in shaping this great nation. Our currency has “In God We Trust” inscribed on it, yet our society has moved further and further into secularization. The effects of relativism and the legislative movements away from our Judeo-Christian roots have caused a further erosion of our societal morals and value system.

 

We should care that our fellow citizens are sleeping on the street, have full time jobs but are forced to sleep in their car, or that many children living in America go to bed hungry every night. But many people either do not care or do not have the time to deal with those issues because they are trying to keep their own family fed and their own businesses running. It is a sad state of affairs, and it is getting worse.

 

In the end, our national discourse needs to shift with the understanding that in order for us to redistribute wealth, rebalance our economy, improve the housing market conditions, increase wages, and add strong paying jobs into the marketplace we have to take a different approach. We cannot rely on the Federal Reserve, the government, the business community, or any other man made institution.

 

Instead we need to approach this situation the way our Founding Fathers did and put our trust and faith in God. He has a plan for us all and for our nation, we need to return to our roots and rebuild our societal fabric with God at the center, and He will serve as our guiding force.

 

(Background information and statistics courtesy of CNBC, The Boston Globe, The NY Times, The Wall Street Journal, Gallup, Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board, United Press International, and Fox Business News)