Are We Headed for Another Recession?

On the heels of a negative May jobs report and some other economic data combined with warnings from financial industry experts the question kept turning in my head: are we heading for another recession?

This discourse included a stern warning from political talk show host, Mark Levin, at the end of last week regarding the impending economic downturn. I invite all those who are interested to check out that source material which made headlines throughout the mainstream media and internet news sites.

The Federal Reserve had a more muted commentary from their leader, Janet Yellen, last week where the overall state of the economy, the potential for a rate hike, and the status of the jobs market were all addressed. The criticism of Fed Chair Yellen is that she has been unclear about the future potential activity with regard to the state of the economy and rate increases.

The counterpoint being that the soft May jobs report had to have impacted the potential course for an interest rate change and some will argue that any major changes should be held off until there are at least one jobs report that shows a rebound in the labor force numbers.

Furthermore, there are others that would maintain that any rate change should be tabled until there are two solid months of jobs data to reinforce that uncertainty. Some economists have speculated that due to the weak May jobs report, the inflation trend data, and other factors including the recent terror incidents in the world that the Fed will not raise in rates in June; a decision that will be made on Wednesday.

That covers the short term immediate future, but looking further down the line, I remain undeterred from my initial doubts about the economy. The overall underemployment rate of people working multiple part time jobs at lower wages than they earned previously coupled with the growing data supporting the trend that so many Americans have simply given up looking for work is daunting.

All of these factors collide in a situation similar to the last tipping point where we had a major recession. In an election year that would be a major problem for our nation and shift the economy to an obvious priority status with the summer conventions for each major party just weeks away from taking place.

Conversely, the Fed will be under scrutiny to raise rates in the event that our economy does hit shallow water because they will have no other way to go if they need to drop the rate lower in future months. It is a very sticky situation. The decision will have far reaching implications for the Dow Jones and the other major indices in the near term as well.

The sheer volatility of the market recently has got to give the casual trader some cause for definite concern. The news last week of the lowest retail gasoline prices in the peak summer driving season in recent history also is an indictment on the glut of supply of crude oil globally and part of the readjustment in the supply/demand curve structure moving forward.

The overall picture for the global economy is certainly another aspect to consider and the general picture between the effects of the Zika virus in Brazil, the many issues in India, the contraction of overall productivity in China, and the volatility of the Russian economy marked by the fluctuations in energy markets all combines to make for a bleak outlook.

The impending vote of the United Kingdom with regard to their status within the European Union and whether they will exit that government body will have a dramatic impact on the economic outlook for that continent and for the entire world.

All of these contributing pieces lend credence to my initial assertion that I believe the U.S. is headed for another recession. In the interim it bears watching to see how the Fed will react and how the markets will, in turn, respond. The best way to weather a storm is to be prepared, and unfortunately, I think a storm is coming.