The Conflict In Ukraine and Malaysian Air Tragedy

The conflict in Ukraine and the tragedy involving a Malaysian Airlines jet which was shot down allegedly by a Russian separatists’ surface to air missile was devastating news to me yesterday. I normally do not write about foreign policy or wars, especially not on Frank’s Forum, but I felt compelled by the events of the past few days to do so.

 

The conflict in Ukraine is a complicated situation where different factions of the population have different ideas about how they see the future of their country evolving. I think they could solve this matter with many other types of methods besides war and bloodshed, but that is not how that situation played out.

 

The White House has been advocating for diplomatic resolutions to this conflict for several months, and just issued some further sanctions on the Russian government to motivate them to end their support of the separatist group in Ukraine. It took the disaster of the Malaysian Air jet crash to get President Vladimir Putin to call for a ceasefire in Ukraine today. Therefore, if there is any good to come out of an international tragedy with 300 innocent lives lost on a commercial aircraft, it was the “wake up call” it provided to the Russians to hopefully end this conflict peacefully.

 

The debate in the mainstream media yesterday was trying to find who is to blame for the Malaysian air tragedy. Was it the Ukrainian forces that shot down the plane by mistake? Did the pro-Russian separatist forces mistakenly think it was a supply plane and shoot it down? Was it the fault of the airline because the FAA had sent warnings to avoid flying over that part of the Crimean region because of the ongoing war and the high risk factor, yet their flight plan went straight through the region?

 

The answer in my mind is that all those factions are responsible for the tragic deaths of innocent lives on a commercial flight yesterday. In fact, we are all responsible for what has happened because this type of violence and hatred should not be acceptable in this world.

 

Middle East Chaos

 

The decision by Israel to begin a ground forces offensive against Hamas is the same type of situation. That area of the world has been a mess for a long time, and it is very sad. So many innocent people have lost their lives in the back and forth, tit-for-tat style of attacks that have been ongoing in that part of the world for decades.

 

It is made even more complicated by the fact that neither side trusts each other, and then takes actions which only reinforce that overall lack of trust. The example that comes to my mind is the Israeli forces finding Hamas troops trying to sneak over the borders in a tunnel during what was supposed to be a truce between these rival sides. Now how can Israel trust that Hamas will halt attacks and agree to terms of a peaceful resolution to this conflict? I do not think they can trust Hamas, and the spiral into more violence, brutality, and destruction will most certainly continue.

 

Then there is the horrible situation with Syria and the I.S.I.S. group of terrorists and the instability within Iraq, which you will all notice has taken a backseat in the mainstream news cycle since the Israel – Hamas situation heated up, and the horrible tragedy in Ukraine yesterday. But remember when the big story was the collapse of Iraq to a terrorist faction of extremists? Well that is still going on.

 

I sent out a “tweet” on the social media site, Twitter, recently that received a great deal of attention and “re-tweets”. It was my harrowing thought of the week: I saw a report that this I.S.I.S. terror group and their elusive leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, released an “annual report” to prove that they were more ruthless than the other terrorist groups. That is proof positive that we have major problems within our society.

 

Then I looked into it further and learned that I.S.I.S. was so brutal in their activities in Syria that even Al-Qaeda cut ties with them. This is a major problem for the stability and peace in that region and for the world. Yet now it is buried to the third or fourth story on the news, and it is unclear what the U.S. and the West are going to do to deal with that ruthless group. I do agree with the White House assessment that the best way forward is to build partnerships in the region in order to effectively deal with that situation in the long term. But what are we doing? What steps are being taken? How are we going to destabilize I.S.I.S.?

 

Respect

 

In the end analysis, all of these events of the past few weeks and months come down to a fundamental loss of respect and love for each other. A friend of mine commented on social media that essentially the world is suffering from the lack of common decency for others that people are unkind to one another.

 

The reliance on warfare to solve problems and disputes is a self-fulfilling situation where violence just leads to more violence and nothing really gets resolved. The “dogs of war” do not address the fundamental issues of what is plaguing the human society on an international level. The struggle between those with a great deal of wealth and resources and those who have little to none of either.

 

I saw on Twitter a few weeks ago a picture of a billboard someone took from somewhere here in America which had a dark color background and had a message in bright letters that read:

“You know that whole ‘Love one another’ thing…I meant that – God”

 

We have lost sight of the Great Commandment to love one another. We need to get it back and to find peaceful resolutions instead of violence, war, and the disrespect for life being shown every night on the evening news.

 

I will now close with a poem I wrote recently which sums up this situation:

 

“Piling Up”

 

The excuses are piling up

It’s not our business to get involved

The anger is piling up

By people all over the world

The death toll is piling up

In Syria, the C.A.R., South Sudan

The rage is piling up

Over the injustice of tyranny

The sadness is piling up

Over the hopelessness we all feel

The dead bodies are piling up

Every time I turn on the news

The numbers keep piling up

Of girls kidnapped in Nigeria

The frustration is piling up

As the U.S., the West does nothing

The evil is piling up

Everywhere it seems these days

My prayers are piling up

That peace will prevail, justice will reign

My hope is piling up

That the Lord will intercede for goodness

My confidence is piling up

Because I know He can heal all things

 

 

Copyright 2014 – Frank J. Maduri – All rights reserved. No republication without written permission from the author.

 

Return of the Cold War? Russia, USA, and the Ukraine Crisis

The news out of Ukraine has dominated the news headlines and for good reason, the situation there is troubling to describe it lightly. The use of aggression by the Russian military is worrisome for the stability of the region and for the potential response of the United States in this situation. It reminds me of a return of the Cold War days, a stand-off between the United States and Russia which is not a scenario any of us want to see a reprisal of at any point.

 

Yesterday, AFP reported that members of the Russian cabinet are threatening to sanction the U.S. if sanctions are placed on Russia regarding the situation in Ukraine. These members are threatening to stop using the U.S. dollar in their international banking transactions, and Russian banks would not return loans from American financial companies.

 

These steps would be taken by Russia, the dignitaries have stated in order to attempt to “crash” the U.S. financial markets. In effect, that would create volatility throughout the global financial system.

 

The Russian response would not be limited to just the U.S., this same report claims that the Russian cabinet has discussed actions against the E.U. which include stopping the exports of gasoline and other energy resources.

 

The E.U. has not been willing to institute real sanctions because they are reluctant to risk the loss of the gasoline exports they rely so heavily upon. According to Reuters, the major players in the E.U. have a lot at stake with Russia: France has a proposed deal with Russia to sell warships to Moscow, British banks are heavily involved in Russian investments which have provided increased profitability, and German owned companies have $22 billion invested in Russia.

 

Same strategy

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the same strategy he employed in the invasion of the Republic of Georgia in 2008 to legitimize his actions in Ukraine by claiming “threats to Russian citizens”. The Russian military occupation of the Crimean peninsula has major international repercussions.

 

Moscow’s interest in Crimea is largely driven by the access to the Black Sea. The news reports today are that the Crimean parliament has voted to join the Russian Federation, effectively splitting Ukraine in two pieces. The current Ukrainian government has not recognized this vote in Crimea.

 

President Obama called the events today in Crimea a violation of international law. Both the President and Secretary of State John Kerry are hopeful that they can maneuver Russia into peace talks with the current government in Ukraine to settle this matter diplomatically.

 

End Game

 

I am deeply concerned about the situation in Ukraine at this point, and I feel that the vote today in the Crimean parliament, whether legitimate or not, raises the tensions in the region. The region of Crimea is largely populated by Russian nationals who tend to be loyal to Moscow. The rest of Ukraine tends to a large degree to be inclined toward achieving greatness in a Ukraine that joins the European Union in order to bolster its future.

 

These dividing lines were of course the same rift which caused the weeks of street protests which culminated in the ouster of former Ukrainian President Yanukovich on February 22. One path toward staying with Russia, and the other path toward joining the European Union.

 

Some people would say the path toward staying closely aligned with Russia is the way of the past, and that the path to E.U. membership is the way of the future. All I know is that a country that severely divided either ends up in a civil war, or ends up fracturing into smaller pieces. In the case of the former Yugoslavia, they had the civil war, and then broke apart into smaller independent states. I fear that Ukraine is headed on this same course, and then complicating matters, Russia is directly involved in this scenario as well.

 

The Russian economy has already seen a backlash to the activity in Ukraine. Some experts believe that Putin’s strategy there will backfire, and others believe that he has put the international community in a very precarious position. This is shaping up to become the biggest issue between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War.

 

In the event that Russia continues to push further into Ukrainian territory, I fear the consequences of that activity could lead to U.S. involvement in the region. I have consulted with others on this issue in the past few days, and the consensus is that Russia cannot afford to alienate the U.S. or the West at this point with the state of their economy currently. The ruble continues to be negatively affected by the events in Ukraine.

 

However, I hope that a diplomatic and peaceful solution can be achieved which will recognize the sovereignty of the new government in Ukraine and provide those people with what all people deserve: the right to determine their own future. Only time will tell whether that peaceful resolution can be obtained.